And even where the NDP does have incumbents, the party can’t take anything for granted. But if the Greens are casting about more widely, they should look to ridings where their provincial cousins have had success. Residents in two Toronto ridings will head to the polls on Monday in a byelection. Voters in Elmwood–Transcona like to keep things close. This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 26, 2020. Richmond Hill has the second-most Farsi-speakers of any riding in the country; it elected Iranian-born Majid Jowhari of the Liberals in 2015. Hamilton is usually friendly territory for New Democrats. Both the Liberals and Conservatives are counting on Quebecers to help them win a majority government. Interior and the Fraser Valley, The 60 ridings that tell the story of where the election will be won and lost, CBC's Journalistic Standards and Practices. Fast-growing and full of young families and commuters, it is perhaps the region of the country where pocketbook issues matter most. The Liberals’ Julie Dzerowicz wrestled the riding back in 2015 by a margin of just three points; she’ll face off against Cash again in October. ... Biden stand in the polls 1 week from U.S. election. The riding is typically Conservative territory and voted for the party and its predecessors in every election since 1972, with three exceptions: in 1993, in 1997 and in 2015, when Joe Peschisolido — a former Canadian Alliance MP — won it for the Liberals. If the New Democrats are going to reconnect with their labour base, then this riding — in which about 16 per cent of the labour force works in manufacturing — should be high on their list. Brison made this a safe Liberal seat, one of the few that survived the cull of the 2011 federal election. Voter turnout was higher than average for byelections: 25.6 per cent in York Centre and 30.9 per cent in Toronto Centre. The party lost in its bid for power under Tom Mulcair in 2015 and now — under leader Jagmeet Singh — the New Democrats are struggling. A fast-growing riding full of young families, Milton is one Conservative riding where the Liberals might be playing offense. I'm sure the PCs will up their vote here but they wont win in this very urban riding. The Ford family name will be on the ballot, but it will belong to Renata Ford, widow of former Toronto mayor Rob Ford, who is running for the People’s Party. What will Quebec do this time? Glengarry–Prescott–Russell was once one of the safest Liberal ridings in the country until Pierre Lemieux and the Conservatives won it in 2006. Greens won the most votes just a few months ago — so it isn’t outlandish to think the federal Greens could do the same. Éric Grenier It has been a swing riding at the provincial level over the last decade; the provincial NDP took it by a margin of 42 points in 2018. He’ll be up against Richmond Hill’s former Conservative MP Costas Menegakis, who was defeated when he opted to run in a neighbouring riding in the last election. New Democrats say they’re optimistic about the odds of some of their former MPs winning back the seats they lost four years ago. Photo by Chris Young/The Canadian Press … On that day, every Toronto Centre voter gets to choose who will be their representative. David Morris should be able to hold onto this -- barely. Can the Liberals hold on in a three-way race? But Brison resigned at the beginning of the year, touching off a sequence of events that ended with the departure of Jody Wilson-Raybould and Jane Philpott from the Liberal cabinet and caucus and the party’s subsequent drop in support. It’s where Doug Ford has his seat, having flipped it from the Ontario Liberals in 2018. Interior and the Lower Mainland. Spent some time here over the weekend. Southwestern Ontario was an important part of Stephen Harper’s majority win in 2011, when his party captured the small urban centres in this part of the province. The Liberals pulled off a big win in Kanata–Carleton to the west of the capital when Karen McCrimmon nearly doubled her party’s share of the vote between 2011 and 2015, capturing 51 per cent. The NDP brand has some staying power in this part of the province, however — the provincial B.C. Outside the GTA, there are some key ridings the Conservatives won in 2011 that they’d probably need to win again in 2019 in order to form a majority government. The Liberals won The 6ix by 26 points last election, and would have swept up 23 of 25 seats if the 2018 boundaries had been in use. Located in a traditional swing region of the country, Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill was won by the Liberals by just 2.1 percentage points in 2015 after the three ridings that existed before were swept by the Conservatives in 2011. One factor that could complicate the Conservatives’ chances of winning the seat again is Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party — every vote his candidate captures improves the odds that the Liberals’ Joël Lightbound will break the anti-incumbent trend in Louis-Hébert. With 41.7% of polls reporting in Toronto Centre. Or will the Conservatives benefit from a split in the vote and win a seat the Ontario PCs secured by a 22-point margin in 2018? The NDP holds seats in both the northern parts of these two provinces and in the urban centres of Winnipeg, Saskatoon and Regina. All of the ridings are currently held by the Liberals, which could prove damaging to the party if any of them turn blue. This time, Mario Beaulieu, the Bloc incumbent and a former leader of the party, is hoping to hold off not only the Liberals but also the Conservatives, who have a local mayor on the ballot. The fact that the Liberals won’t have an incumbent on the ballot improves the NDP’s chances. But a few ridings in Ontario that otherwise would have been high on the Conservatives’ list of soft targets might be harder for them to win than previously thought — thanks to the unpopularity of Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservative government. The suburban region around Montreal is coveted territory for both the Bloc Québécois and the Liberals — and the key to winning here is to pick up the votes the NDP has left on the table. The CBC poll tracker now has the Liberals on 0 seats in Toronto since the NDP have taken first in the polls. That speculation resurfaced when Duguid confirmed a … Safe NDP call! The Conservatives’ support in the riding dropped only marginally last time and the Liberals do not have an incumbent. And can Elizabeth May’s Greens, Maxime Bernier’s new People’s Party or Independents like Jody Wilson-Raybould change the electoral map? Blaikie and Toet will be facing off again this fall and, with the party slumping in the polls, the NDP might find it difficult to keep its only toehold in Winnipeg. Chang’s meet-and-greets have made an impression upon students like Brendan Lim, 24, at the University of Toronto – St. George Campus. B.C. But the NDP’s Robert Aubin only held on to his seat by less than a thousand votes in 2015, when the Liberals finished a close second. 2014 Election Result:Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton, Ontario Provincial Election - 2018 When Cambridge swings, it tends to swing for good. The Liberals won it back in 2015 with Andrew Leslie, but the retired lieutenant-general is not running for re-election. That would make this an NDP gain and sweep of the downtown region. The Coalition Avenir Québec’s big win in the 2018 provincial election provides the Conservatives with a roadmap for gains in October. With other parties circling the party’s vulnerable seats, its performance also could help decide who forms the next government. Andrew Saxton, who won the seat for the Conservatives in 2008 and 2011 and finished second-to-last in the 2017 leadership race, will be running against Wilkinson again. Liberal MLA Gordie Hogg, the Conservatives and their predecessor parties had held sway in the riding uninterrupted for 43 years. After Erin Mills, Mississauga–Lakeshore has been the next most favourable riding for the Conservatives in Mississauga — which makes it a must-win for Andrew Scheer. Voters in two Toronto ridings will head to the polls next month to choose a new MP. But the retirement of some incumbent MPs could flip some traditional strongholds from Liberal red to Conservative blue. Once a Liberal stronghold, La Pointe-de-l’Île hasn’t voted for the party since 1980. Marci Ien, the Liberal Candidate for the Toronto Centre riding is facing a tough challenge from new Green leader Annamie Paul. Speaking to iPolitics on Tuesday, Bernier wasn’t sure if he would run in Toronto Centre or York Centre, both ridings left empty by the resignations of two Liberal MPs. Brison wasn’t a Liberal candidate in 1997 and 2000 either, when he won the riding as a Progressive Conservative. But Quebec has been the most unpredictable province over the last few elections. He then expanded his party’s caucus to three seats in 2018, winning his own Fredericton South seat by a huge margin. Though it was a narrow win for Liberal Randy Boissonnault in 2015, the Liberals will be looking to hoover up a chunk of the vote that went for the third-place federal NDP four years ago. The Conservatives can’t be ruled out, either: if Robinson and the Liberals’ Terry Beech split the vote, the Conservatives could win with only a minor improvement over their 2015 performance. The NDP has a familiar name on the ballot in Svend Robinson, who was the NDP MP for the Burnaby portion of the riding from 1979 to 2004. But the seat was captured provincially by the Ford PCs in 2018 by a narrow margin and the riding’s profile makes it one that likely would end up in the Conservative camp if they win a majority government — as was the case in 2011. A I mentioned in my earlier prediction, the Toronto Centre Liberal riding association is an exceptionally organized, well-funded behemoth with strong ties to Toronto's business and social elite. The loss of Rosedale does help the NDP, but with Wynne moving the Liberals leftwards and having the type of policies that sell well in downtown Toronto, I suspect they will hold this. The NDP’s win in Essex in 2015 was a significant breakthrough, as it was one of the few ridings where the party’s support actually increased over 2011. Markham–Stouffville was already setting up to be a competitive race between the Liberals and Conservatives. The Liberals won in 2015 thanks to their support in the Lower Mainland portion of the riding, but they took few polls in the Interior portion. The riding has swung between the Liberals, New Democrats and Conservatives for quite some time, but one constant has been Liberal incumbent Sukh Dhaliwal: win or lose (he lost twice), he has carried the party’s banner here in every election since 2004. Berthier–Maskinongé was one of the rare ridings in Quebec where the NDP’s share of the vote actually increased between 2011 and 2015 — largely thanks to Ruth Ellen Brosseau, the parachute candidate from Ottawa who made her home in the riding after unexpectedly winning it in the NDP’s orange wave. That would make this an NDP gain and sweep of the downtown region. An NDP victory is not out of the picture if the NDP wins province-wide. I've lived in Church and Wellesley before, and despite this riding having a very active NDP and some areas where the party does quite well, I expect this to hold as Liberal. Since 1957, the Liberals have won Kings–Hants only once - in 1993, when Scott Brison wasn’t their candidate. If previous provincial and federal elections are any indication, expect a high profile Liberal candidate to run in this riding and win handedly. But the Liberals have nominated a former Olympian in Adam van Koeverden, suggesting they think Milton is a seat they can win. coast — where the pipeline ends and the oil tankers begin. The Conservatives won it by a wide margin in 2011 but lost it by just six points in 2015 to the Liberals’ Marwan Tabbara. He polled 21,522 votes in the 2007 provincial election. North Vancouver swung to the Liberals in a big way in 2015, but the Conservatives (and their predecessor parties) won the riding in 10 of the previous 12 elections. The Liberals have won 15 of the last 19 votes held here, but the margins were close in 2015 — and Ford’s PCs captured a majority of ballots cast in Richmond Hill last year. Closed Captioning and Described Video is available for many CBC-TV shows offered on CBC Gem. But while Scheer would like to repeat the success of ‘Ford Nation’, he might face an obstacle in Ford himself. The NDP has fewer incumbents running for re-election than other parties, putting those seats at risk. The Conservatives hold the neighbouring seat of Richmond Centre and are looking to regain control of both seats in Richmond, which they managed to do in both the 2008 and 2011 elections. A lot of seats are up for grabs in Quebec this fall because of the NDP’s collapse in support in the province. The New Democrats have had more success in downtown Toronto in the past, though they lost all of their seats in the city in the last election. Will Philpott retain enough of the support that narrowly won her the seat in 2015 to be re-elected as an Independent? It was decided by a margin of just six points in 2015, with Sven Spengemann of the Liberals defeating Stella Ambler. We are also sticking by Jane Philpott in her riding on a personal vote, though independent bids are quite difficult. Outside of Quebec, where its support has collapsed, the NDP could be pushed out of some of its traditional strongholds in this fall’s election. Whoever wins here probably will win the election. In neighbouring B.C., the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion finds its highest level of support in the B.C. Patrick, Fort York, when ridings were redistributed to match their federal counterparts. The Liberals swept all 32 of Atlantic Canada’s seats in 2015, a feat that was always going to be hard to repeat. There are 338 federal ridings in Canada and voters will be going to the polls in each on Oct. 21, 2019. The closest competition is too far off, this riding won't swing. With one-fourth of commuters in their cars for at least an hour a day, this is one riding where the debate over the carbon tax could prove decisive. But that means it’s normally a reliably Conservative seat and Fuhr could face a challenge in preventing the riding from returning to the norm. The Greens had their first breakthrough in the Maritimes back in 2014, when David Coon won the provincial party’s first seat in that year’s New Brunswick election. This web site is the creation of P.J. That victory marked the first time the Liberals had won in Kelowna since 1968 — the last time the Liberals were mounting their first campaign under a leader named Trudeau. 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